Trucker turnover rate lowest in six years
In contrast to the strong ocean and rail movement of grain, the American Trucking Associations (A.T.A.) said fourth-quarter 2016 truck driver turnover (drivers changing jobs) at large truckload fleets was at an annualized rate of 71%, the lowest in six years, and at smaller fleets (annual revenue under $30 million) was at 64%, the lowest in five years. The bulk of the freight measured by the index is not grain.
“Continued decline in turnover reflects the overall choppiness of the freight market,” said Bob Costello, chief economist of the A.T.A. “As inventory levels throughout the supply chain are drawn down to more normal levels, and freight volumes recover, we should see turnover rise along with concerns about the driver shortage.”
The A.T.A.’s advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index in March fell 1% from February to 137.5% of the 2000 base of 100 after slipping slightly in February but was up about 1% from March 2016 and compared with an all-time high of 142.7% in February 2016. The unadjusted index, which represents the change in tonnage actually hauled before seasonal adjustment, was 143.9% in March, up 14.6% from February. While the A.T.A. tonnage index represents mostly non-grain truck tonnage, it is seen as a barometer of the U.S. economy since trucks carry about 70% of the tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation. For grains, trucks are most important for shorter hauls of products from the farm to local elevators, processing plants or in the case of corn, to ethanol facilities, as well as for finished products, especially refrigerated items. Railroads are the primary mover of grain for longer distances from country elevators to terminal markets and to export facilities, as well as moving containers from inland locations to ports, and vice versa. Barges primarily move grain from terminal elevators to ports.
“Like several other economic indicators, March truck tonnage was likely hurt by some late-season winter storms,” Mr. Costello said. “Despite last month’s dip, seasonally adjusted tonnage rose 1.2% during the first quarter overall from the previous quarter and increased 0.2% from the same quarter last year. While I’m not expecting a surge in truck tonnage anytime soon, the signs remain mostly positive for freight, including lower inventory levels, better manufacturing activity, solid housing starts and good consumer spending. As a result, we can expect moderate growth going forward.”
