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Statistics Canada forecasts larger wheat, canola and soybean crops and smaller corn and oats crops
(Bakingbusiness.com, August 26, 2008)





Statistics Canada in its Aug. 22 report on production of principal field crops projected larger wheat, canola and soybean crops this year than last and smaller oats and corn crops.

Statistics Canada projected Canadian wheat production in 2008 at 25,426,000 tonnes, up 5,372,000 tonnes, or 27%, from 20,054,000 tonnes in 2007. It would be the largest Canadian wheat crop since 25,748,000 tonnes in 2005 and compare with 23,782,000 tonnes as the recent five-year average outturn. Pre-report trade expectations ranged from 24.5 million tonnes to 27.1 million tonnes.

Canadian spring wheat production in 2008 was projected at 16,325,000 tonnes, up 18% from 13,873,000 tonnes a year ago. Winter wheat production was estimated at 4,191,000 tonnes, up 68% from 2,499,000 tonnes in 2007. Durum production was projected at 4,910,000 tonnes, up 33% from 3,681,000 tonnes a year ago. The durum crop would be the country’s fourth largest and compare with the recent five-year average of 4,391,000 tonnes. The durum projection was lowered 290,000 tonnes from the Aug. 1 forecast of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada because of dry conditions in principal growing areas.

Canadian canola production in 2008 was projected at a record 10,375,000 tonnes, up 9% from the previous record outturn of 9,529,000 tonnes in 2007. "Canola production could increase by 847,000 tonnes over 2007, the result of both an anticipated above-average yield of 29.3 bus per acre and an expected strong harvest area of 15.6 million acres," Statistics Canada said. "Market demand for biodiesel and increasing crushing capacity, coupled with the high prices at the time of planting, may have motivated farmers to plant more canola."

Soybean production in Canada was projected at 3,167,000 tonnes, up 18% from 2,696,000 tonnes in 2007. It would be Canada’s second-largest soybean crop. The largest, at 3,466,000 tonnes, was harvested in 2006.

Statistics Canada projected oats production this year at 4,061,000 tonnes, down 14% from 4,696,000 tonnes in 2007 and compared with 3,735,000 tonnes as the recent five-year average.

Canadian corn production in 2008 was projected at 9,892,000 tonnes, down 15% from the record outturn of 11,649,000 tonnes a year ago. The recent five-year average corn crop was 9,679,000 tonnes. "Farmers in Ontario expected to produce less corn for grain, mainly due to declines in expected harvested area," Statistics Canada said. "Due to favorable weather conditions in the fall of 2007, winter wheat was rotated into much of the land used to grow corn and soybeans, resulting in a production decrease of 12.6% to 6.1 million tonnes." Statistics Canada said Quebec corn production should fall 20% because more than 100,000 acres was rotated out of corn and into soybeans.

 
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August 26 Markets




• Commercial red meat production up 8%
July poultry, pork and cheese stocks up MORE


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