Wheat carryover down slightly from January

KANSAS CITY — The US Department of Agriculture on Feb. 11 lowered its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2025, to 794 million bus. The new forecast was 4 million bus lower than the January projection. A forecast increase of 4 million bus for 2024-25 food use of wheat was behind the small adjustment contained in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

At 794 million bus, the revised carryover forecast was 98 million bus higher than the 2024 carryover pegged at 696 million bus. The 2025 carryover would be the largest since 845 million bus were carried over in 2021. The recent high carryover was 1,181 million bus in 2017, and the record high carryover of US wheat was 1,905 million bus in 1986. The new forecast compared with the average of pre-report trade expectations at 799 million bus.

The USDA forecast for the 2024-25 wheat supply was unchanged at 2,798 million bus, which included carry-in of 696 million bus, unchanged from January but up 22% from 570 million bus in 2023-24, and forecast imports at 130 million bus, also unchanged from January but down 8 million bus from 2023-24.

The USDA forecast food use of wheat in 2024-25 at 970 million bus, up 4 million bus from January and up 9 million bus from 2023-24. The USDA raised its food use forecast based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service Flour Milling Products report issued Feb. 3, which said fourth-quarter wheat flour grind was up 2% from the same period the previous year.

Seed use of wheat in 2024-25 was forecast at 64 million bus, unchanged from January and up 2 million bus from 2023-24. Feed and residual use of wheat in 2024-25 was forecast at 120 million bus, unchanged from January but up sharply by 35 million bus, or 41%, from 85 million bus in 2023-24.

The USDA forecast wheat exports at 850 million bus, unchanged from January but up 143 million bus, or 20%, from 707 million bus in 2023-24.

The USDA forecast the carryover of hard red winter wheat at 382 million bus, down 2 million bus from January on a like increase in food use. The hard red spring wheat carryover was forecast at 197 million bus, down 1 million bus from January on a like increase in food use. The soft red winter wheat carryover was forecast at 111 million bus, up 1 million bus from January, although no indication was given for the change. The white wheat carryover was forecast at 70 million bus, unchanged from January. The durum wheat carryover was forecast at 35 million bus, down 1 million bus from January on a like increase in food use for the wheat class used to grind semolina for the production of pasta.