OTTAWA — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (A.A.F.C.) on Sept. 15 forecast the carryover of all wheat in Canada on Aug. 1, 2018, at 4,300,000 tonnes, down 2,565,000 tonnes, or 37%, from 6,865,000 tonnes in 2017 and compared with 5,178,000 tonnes in 2016. The durum carryover in 2018 was forecast at 800,000 tonnes, down 57% from 1,863,000 tonnes in 2017. The carryover of wheat excluding durum was forecast at 3,500,000 tonnes, down 30% from 5,003,000 tonnes in 2017.
A.A.F.C. estimated 2017 Canadian wheat production at 25,541,000 tonnes, down 6,188,000 tonnes, or 20%, from a record 31,729,000 tonnes in 2016. Production of all wheat except durum in 2017 was estimated at 21,643,000 tonnes, down 2,324,000 tonnes, or 10%, from 23,967,000 tonnes in 2016 and compared with 22,205,000 tonnes in 2015. Durum production in 2017 was estimated at 3,898,000 tonnes, down 3,864,000 tonnes, or 50%, from 7,762,000 tonnes in 2016 and compared with 5,389,000 tonnes in 2015.
A.A.F.C. in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts said the steep drop in durum production resulted from a 16% decrease in seeded area compared with 2016 and lower-than-trend yields in the durum-growing area.
A.A.F.C. said a 1% increase in seeded area of wheat excluding durum in 2017 was more than offset by lower yields.
“The lower yields are due to a return to trend yields in most of Canada from the record yields in 2016-17 and below trend yields in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta because of low precipitation,” the agriculture ministry said.
A.A.F.C. estimated production of western red spring wheat at 16,087,000 tonnes compared with 16,669,000 tonnes in 2016. Canadian western red spring wheat is estimated to account for 74% of total Canadian wheat production this year compared with 70% in 2016.
All-wheat imports in 2017-18 were forecast at 110,000 tonnes compared with 111,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and 109,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Imports of wheat excluding durum were forecast at 100,000 tonnes, the same as in 2016-17. Durum imports were forecast at 10,000 tonnes compared with 11,000 tonnes in 2016-17.
All-wheat supplies in 2017-18 were forecast at 32,516,000 tonnes, down 4,502,000 tonnes, or 12%, from 37,018,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 34,803,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Supply of wheat except durum was forecast at 26,746,000 tonnes, down 1,399,000 tonnes, or 5%, from 28,145,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 28,426,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Durum supplies in 2017-18 were forecast at 5,770,000 tonnes, down 3,103,000 tonnes, or 35%, from 8,873,000 tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 6,378,000 tonnes in 2015-16.
A.A.F.C. forecast Canadian all-wheat exports in 2017-18 at 20,200,000 tonnes, down 109,000 tonnes from 2016-17 and compared with 21,734,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Exports of wheat excluding durum were forecast at 16,000,000 tonnes, up 421,000 tonnes from 15,579,00 tonnes in 2016-17 and compared with 17,192,000 tonnes in 2015-16. Durum exports in 2017-18 were forecast at 4,200,000 tonnes, down 530,000 tonnes from 2016-17 and compared with 4,543,000 tonnes in 2015-16.
Domestic disappearance of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 8,016,000 tonnes, down 1,827,000 tonnes, or 19%, from 9,843,000 tonnes in 2016-17. The decrease was attributed to lower disappearance through feed, waste and dockage, forecast at 3,559,000 tonnes, down 35% from the previous year, as food and industrial use of wheat in 2017-18 was forecast at 3,480,000 tonnes, up 2% from 2016-17.
