OTTAWA — Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada on Feb. 16 forecast area planted to wheat, canola and oats this spring to increase from 2017 with record area and production projected for canola.
A.A.F.C. forecast area planted to all-wheat in Canada for harvest this year at 9,510,000 hectares (1 hectare = 2.47 acres), up 4% from 9,126,00 hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9,310,000 hectares, up 4% from 8,983,000 hectares in 2017. A.A.F.C. projected average yield at 3.22 tonnes per hectare, signifying a return to trend yields compared with 3.34 tonnes per hectare in 2017. Canadian wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 30,000,000 tonnes, up only 16,000 tonnes from 2017.
A.A.F.C. commented that the planted area increase resulted from a projected 5% increase in spring wheat plantings that would more than offset an 11% decrease in winter wheat seedings.
“The spring wheat area is forecast to increase because of relatively good prices for spring wheat and a shift out of winter wheat and dry peas in Western Canada,” A.A.F.C. said.
A.A.F.C. projected planted area of wheat excluding durum (winter wheat and spring wheat) in 2018 at 7,300,000 hectares, up 4% from 7,020,000 hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 7,140,000 hectares, up 4% from 6,895,000 hectares. Average yield was forecast at 3.4 tonnes per hectare compared with 3.63 tonnes in 2017. Production of wheat excluding durum in 2018 was projected at 24,300,000 tonnes, down 3% from 25,022,000 tonnes in 2017.
A.A.F.C. projected area planted to durum for harvest this year at 2,210,000 hectares, up 5% from 2,106,000 hectares in 2017. Harvested area was forecast at 2,170,000 hectares, up 4% from 2,088,000 hectares in 2017. Average yield was projected at 2.63 tonnes per hectare compared with 2.38 tonnes in 2017. Canadian durum production in 2018 was projected at 5,700,000 tonnes, up 15% from 4,962,000 tonnes in 2017 but more than 2 million tonnes lower than the record crop in 2016 at 7,762,000 tonnes.
A.A.F.C. said the larger planted area for durum was forecast because of lower carry-in stocks, relatively good prices and a shift out of lentils. The higher production forecast was attributed to the larger planted and harvested areas and a return to trend yields from the below-trend yields of 2017, which resulted from below-normal precipitation in the durum growing areas.
A.A.F.C. forecast Canadian area planted to canola for harvest this year at 9,730,000 hectares, up 5% from 9,307,000 hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 9,716,000 hectares, up 5% from 9,266,000 hectares in 2017. Average yield was forecast at 2.23 tonnes per hectare, down from an above-trend yield of 2.3 tonnes per hectare in 2017.
Canadian canola production in 2018 was projected at a record 21,700,000 tonnes, up 2% from 21,313,000 tonnes in 2017, the current record.
The larger forecast planted area for canola was due to “attractive expected returns compared to alternative field crops and the strong pace of sales for 2017-18,” the A.A.F.C. said.
A.A.F.C. forecast area planted to oats for harvest this year at 1,325,000 hectares, up 2% from 1,295,000 hectares in 2017. Harvested area was projected at 1,075,000 hectares, up 2% from 1,049,000 hectares in 2017. Average yield in 2018 was projected at 3.44 tonnes per hectare compared with an above-trend 3.55 tonnes in 2017. Canadian oats production in 2018 was projected at 3,700,000 tonnes, down only 24,000 tonnes from the 2017 outturn at 3,724,000 tonnes.
A.A.F.C. said the seeded area forecast for oats increased from 2017 “due to good U.S. oat futures levels, which will contribute to competitive pricing versus other cropping choices.”
