WASHINGTON — The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report projected U.S. 2018 carryover of wheat and corn higher but soybean carryover lower from March forecasts, while 2017-18 export projections for all three commodities were left unchanged from a month earlier.
U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2018, was forecast at 1,064 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 3%, from 1,034 million bus projected in March, but down 117 million bus, or 10%, from 1,181 million bus in 2017.
The 2018 wheat carryover was above the average trade expectation of 1,040 million bus but within the range of analysts’ estimates.
The U.S.D.A. attributed the increase entirely to a like decrease in feed and residual use of wheat, forecast at 70 million bus in April’s report, as implied in the March 29 Grain Stocks report, which also said record U.S. March 1 corn stocks would continue to displace wheat for feed use during the 2017-18 marketing year.
Hard red winter wheat carryover on June 1, 2018, was projected at 545 million bus, up 35 million bus from March but down 44 million bus from 589 million bus in 2017. Soft red winter carryover was projected at 225 million bus, down 3 million bus from March but up 10 million bus from 215 million bus last year. Hard red spring wheat carryover was projected at 190 million bus, up 5 million bus from March but down 45 million bus from 235 million bus in 2017. White wheat carryover was projected at 66 million bus, down 10 million bus from March and down 39 million bus from 2017. Durum carryover was forecast at 38 million bus, up 3 million bus from March and up 2 million bus from 2017.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was projected at 2,182 million bus, up 55 million bus, or 2.6%, from March but down 111 million bus, or 5%, from 2,293 million bus estimated on Sept. 1, 2017. The U.S.D.A. 2018 projection was slightly below the trade average forecast of 2,192 million bus.
Increased corn carryover was attributed to lower feed and residual use and slightly lower food, seed and industrial use. Feed and residual use in 2017-18 was projected at 5,500 million bus, down 50 million bus, or 0.9%, from March but up 28 million bus from 2016-17. Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 7,040 million bus, down 5 million bus from March but up 157 million bus, or 2.3%, from a year earlier. Use of corn for ethanol was unchanged from March at 5,575 million bus.
Projected soybean carryover in the United States decreased from March due to increased projections for soybean crush offsetting lower seed and residual use. Higher soybean meal prices have been supported crush margins, the U.S.D.A. said.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2018, was projected at 550 million bus, down 5 million bus, or 0.9%, from 555 million bus projected in March but up 248 million bus, or 82%, from 302 million bus estimated on Sept. 1, 2017. The U.S.D.A. 2018 projection was below the trade average forecast near 570 million bus.
Soybean crushings in 2017-18 were forecast at a record 1,970 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 0.5%, from March and up 69 million bus, or 4%, from 2016-17. Seed use was projected at 103 million bus, down 3 million bus from March and down 2 million bus from 2016-17. Residual use was projected at 30 million bus, down 3 million bus from March and down 4 million bus from 2016-17.
The U.S.D.A. projected 2017-18 global ending stocks of wheat at 271.22 million tonnes, compared with 268.89 million tonnes projected in March and 254.60 million tonnes estimated for 2016-17.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 197.78 million tonnes for 2017-18 compared with 199.17 million tonnes projected in March and 230.90 million tonnes in 2016-17.
World soybean ending stocks for 2017-18 were projected at 90.80 million tonnes compared with 94.40 million tonnes in March and 96.72 million tonnes in 2016-17.
World soybean production for 2017-18 was projected at 334.81 million tonnes compared with 340.86 million tonnes in March and 350.76 million tonnes in 2016-17, largely due to Argentine soybean production, which fell 7 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes from March and compared with 57.8 million tonnes in 2016-17. That was partially offset by a 2-million-tonne increase over March for projected Brazilian soybean production at a record 115 million tonnes.
Drought in Argentina has slashed soybean production severely. The world’s No. 3 soybean exporter and top supplier of soybean meal and soybean oil this week bought 120,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans, according to the U.S.D.A.’s 24-hour reporting service. It was Argentina’s largest purchase of U.S. soybeans since December 1997, according to trade reports.
