WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Oct. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reduced its estimate of 2022-23 US sugar supply, cut its forecast for 2023-24 supply and cut its projection of Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production, dropping the US stocks-to-use ratios for both this year and last year.

The USDA forecast 2023-24 sugar production at 8,969,000 tons, up 12,000 tons from September but down 268,000 tons, or 2.9%, from 2022-23, with beet sugar at 5,151,000 tons, down 71,200 tons from September on “lowered sugar beet yields in several states,” and cane sugar at 3,817,000 tons, up 59,000 tons. Production in drought-stricken Louisiana was forecast at 1,738,000 tons, up 56,000 tons from September due to “increased sugar cane yield and production expected in September pushed over to 2023-24.” Production in Louisiana still was forecast down 272,000 tons, or 13.5%, from 2022-23 due to severe drought across the sugar cane growing region.

Total sugar imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,277,000 tons, up 13,099 tons from September but down 307,000 tons, or 8.6%, from 2022-23. Tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,617,000 tons, up 13,099 tons from September as imports expected in the July-September quarter were pushed into the new marketing year that started Oct. 1. Other program imports were forecast at 200,000 tons, imports from Mexico at 1,284,000 tons, and high-tier imports at 175,000 tons, all unchanged from September.

Total US sugar supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,222,000 tons, down 182,212 tons from September and down 419,000 tons from 2022-23 “attributable to lower beginning stocks” as import and production changes are largely offsetting, the USDA said.

US sugar deliveries for food use in 2023-24 were forecast at 12,525,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from September, carrying over a like reduction for deliveries in 2022-23. Total use was forecast at 12,665,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from September but up 1,000 tons from 2022-23.

Ending stocks in 2023-24 were forecast at 1,557,000 tons, down 157,000 tons, or 9.2%, from September and down 420,000 tons, or 21.2%, from 2022-23. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 12.3%, down from 13.5% in September and down from 15.6% in 2022-23.

For 2022-23, cane sugar production was lowered, imports were lowered, food deliveries were lowered and ending stocks were estimated at 1,977,000 tons, down 182,000 tons from September but up 157,000 tons from 2021-22. The ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6% was reduced from 17.1% in September.

Total sugar production was estimated at 9,237,000 tons, down 24,000 tons due to a like reduction in output in Louisiana with delayed cane harvest pushing the production into 2023-24. Most changes were in the import section. Total imports were estimated at 3,584,000 tons, down 154,000 tons, or 4.1%, from September and down 62,000 tons from 2021-22. Imports from Mexico were estimated at 1,156,000 tons, down 63,000 tons from September, TRQ imports at 1,834,000 tons, down 35,000 tons, other program imports at 141,000 tons, down 63,000 tons, and high-tier imports at 453,000 tons, up 3,000 tons.

Total supply in 2022-23 was estimated at 14,641,000 tons, down 178,000 tons from September but up 133,000 tons from the prior year.

Deliveries for food in 2022-23 were estimated at 12,475,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from September, exports at 70,000 tons, up 25,000 tons, and “other” deliveries at 119,000 tons, up 4,000 tons. 

Potentially significant for the United States, the USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 5,575,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 225,000 tonnes, or 3.9%, from its September projection but up 6.7% from 2022-23 as “Mexico is currently experiencing widespread drought conditions,” the USDA said. Mexico’s 2023-24 exports were forecast at 1,124,000 tonnes, down 124,000 tonnes from September but up 113,000 tonnes from 2022-23. Imports by Mexico were forecast at 322,039 tonnes, up 277,000 tonnes from last month and up 37,000 tonnes from last year. Ending stocks were raised to 909,000 tonnes with a total ending stocks-to-use ratio of 15.6%.