WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report forecast sharply lower 2023-24 sugar production in Mexico and lower US imports of sugar from Mexico but boosted forecasts of US domestic sugar production and of high-duty imports (both record high), resulting in a jump in the forecast 2023-24 ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.7% from 12.8% in December.
The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 5,016,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 5% from December, down 4% from 2022-23 and the lowest since 4,825,000 tonnes in 2009-10, which some analysts expect will be challenged this year. Mexico’s 2023-24 ending stocks were unchanged at 900,000 tonnes as lower production was offset by higher imports, forecast at 510,867 tonnes, up 225,000 tonnes from December, and lower exports, forecast at 814,000 tonnes, down 42,000 tonnes. Mexico’s production of low-polarity sugar was forecast at 11.8% of total production, with exports to the United States at 789,080 tonnes and to other countries at 25,000 tonnes, the USDA said.
For the United States, the USDA forecast total domestic sugar production at a record-high 9,391,000 short tons, raw value, up 1.6% from December, based on cane sugar production at 3,985,000 tons, up 2.7% (all in Louisiana), and beet sugar production at a record 5,407,000 tons, up 0.8%, as higher sugar recovery more than offset lower sugar beet production.
Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,310,000 tons, up 1.7% from December, with tariff-rate quota imports at 1,613,000 tons, down 7,000 tons, other program unchanged at 200,000 tons, Mexico at 922,000 tons, down 49,000 tons (5%) and high-duty at a record 575,000 tons, up 110,000 tons (24%), including 400,000 tons of raw sugar and 175,000 tons of refined sugar.
Total sugar supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,544,000 tons, up 189,687 tons, or 1.3%, from December but down 141,000 tons, or 1%, from 2022-23.
The only change in forecast sugar use in 2023-24 was for exports at 160,000 tons, up 60% from December, mainly due to higher exports to Mexico.
Domestic sugar deliveries were unchanged from December at 12,630,000 tons, including deliveries for food at 12,525,000 tons.
US 2023-24 sugar ending stocks were forecast at 1,754,000 tons, up 130,000 tons, or 8%, from December, but down 89,000 tons, or 4.8%, from 2022-23.
Minimal changes were made to 2022-23 estimates with cane sugar production raised 2,000 tons, miscellaneous use raised 15,000 tons, and ending stocks lowered 12,000 tons, resulting in an ending stocks of 1,843,000 tons and an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 14.3%, the same as in 2021-22 but down from 14.5% in December. There were no changes to Mexico’s 2022-23 estimates.
