KANSAS CITY — El Niño is expected to diminish quickly in the first quarter of 2024, and there are some computer forecast models suggesting a transition back to La Niña is possible. At the same time there is some cooling beginning in the Gulf of Alaska, and the combination of these features and a drier looking lunar cycle for summer may bring on an encore performance of summer dryness in North America.
Drought has been a frequent performer in North American weather extremes since 2020, and even though evidence of relief is showing up in many areas there may be one more round of dryness coming on for summer 2024. Quite often the current 22-year solar cycle has been blamed for weather extremes around the world, and the years 2020-23 certainly have allowed the legend to live on. The most amazing part of the multi-year dryness in North America has been crop performance. Most of the crops subjected to extreme conditions have not just burned up and blown away as they might have in the 1980s, 1950s and 1930s. Even though production has been hurt in some areas the timeliness of rain has managed to support better-than-expected yields in some areas year after year.
Tell that to a southwestern Canadian producer and he might come at you with a pitch fork because of his seven-year struggle to produce crops. However, generally speaking, crops have performed better than expected in many areas that were stressed by poor rainfall. The pattern of recurring dryness, extreme heat and bitter cold are all part of the extremes that have been associated with this solar cycle. Even though the solar maximum is upon us there is potential for one more drier-biased and warmer-biased summer in 2024.
The feature that is expected this year that might make the additional dry summer somewhat of a surprise is the fact that spring weather may present some timely and beneficial moisture to many areas, including the driest areas. World Weather, Inc. is not convinced the southwestern Canada Prairies will be one of those recipients of beneficial spring rainfall, but improvement could come to that region in the summer while central North America returns to a pattern dominating the region with a ridge of high pressure producing warmer- and drier-than-usual conditions.
Star performers
To bring on these patterns we must look at the previous star performers in this series of dry summers. The key performers have been the lunar and solar cycles, La Niña, El Niño, and cooler-than-usual ocean water in the Gulf of Alaska. Each of these weather features will have some role to play in supporting the potential for another central United States and southeastern Canada Prairies dry summer.
The lunar cycle already has been suggesting below-normal precipitation will impact central parts of North America in 2024. However, in addition to that there is now multiple forecasts of a possible La Niña returning later this year. In the past, years that have started with El Niño and ended with La Niña have had some drier and warmer tendencies in the central United States, though the more meaningful years are those in which the transition occurs aggressively from January into June. Recent weeks of the NOAA ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) CFSv2 model runs have been suggesting an aggressive move from El Niño to La Niña is possible in 2024. If that happens, the potential for dryness in the central United States (including the Great Plains and western Midwest) becomes much greater. Some of that dryness usually extends northward into the southeastern Prairies.
The difference this summer relative to those of the past few is that the drier and warmer bias will be a more sharply concentrated period of time rather than drawn out over multiple months. Some timely precipitation will occur prior to and immediately following the stressful period, which may help its impact be relatively short-lived. With all of that said, it is important to remember that we are not in control of the weather, and just when we think we have it all figured out, we will learn a new lesson in humility.
New trends emerging
In addition to the lunar cycle, El Niño and La Niña, there is a new trend in the Gulf of Alaska suggesting cooler ocean water will evolve over time this late winter and spring. Cool water is sometimes associated with poor rainfall in parts of Canada and the Northern US Plains. The big, bad drought of 1988 was one of those years that was influenced by cool ocean water. Today’s ocean surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska are nowhere near cold enough to cause a problem with North America rainfall — at least not on its own, but if the trend continues in the next few weeks, that could change.
The year 1988 is an important year to keep in mind this year because it is a part of the lunar or 18-year cycle. World Weather, Inc. does not believe another drought year like that will evolve in 2024, but keeping an eye on all of the trends mentioned here should provide sufficient early warning if the pattern goes awry and a more significant dryness problem occurs in the summer ahead. For now, we can anticipate another dry summer, but with spring and autumn a little wetter the odds do not suggest a long-lasting dryness problem. Then again, it only takes a few hot and dry weeks to create a crop problem.
