AVENTURA, FLA. — Craig Ruffolo, vice president and commodity specialist for McKeany-Flavell Co., offered some “good news” to attendees Feb. 26 at the 2024 International Sweetener Colloquium.

“For the first time in a long time, corn prices are going in the direction that makes everyone happy, except the farmers,” Ruffolo said, which is good news indeed for the corn sweetener industry after experiencing the closing of several plants across the country that brought a corn milling capacity contraction in recent years.

Ruffolo attributed the easing in corn prices to five points. First, there was the year-over-year increase in planted corn acres. In 2023, the United States planted 94.6 million acres to corn, up 7% from 88.2 million acres planted in 2022. The increase in planted acres naturally indicated more acres would be harvested, and that certainly was the case in 2023 with the United States harvesting 86.5 million acres, compared to 78.7 million acres in 2022. The yield in 2023 also was higher at 177.3 bus per acre versus 173.4 bus per acre in 2022. Overall production reached a record high in 2023-24 at 15,342 million bus, 12% higher than 13,651 million bus in 2022-23. And finally, the 2024 US corn carryover is forecast at an abundant 2,172 million bus, a figure that is 60% higher than the estimated 1,360 million bus in 2023.

Expectations for the 2024-25 corn market appear poised to be impacted by similar influences. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting fewer acres planted to corn this year than in 2023. Ruffolo said he did not expect corn prices to sink below $4 a bu during this crop season’s harvest period, but he also didn’t expect prices to go above $5 a bu either.