WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its March 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report lowered from February its forecasts for domestic beet sugar production and imports from Mexico, much as the trade expected, dropping the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 13.4% from 14.2% a month earlier.  

US 2023-24 sugar imports from Mexico were forecast at 666,000 short tons, raw value, down 133,000 tons, or 17%, from February and down 490,000 tons, or 42%, from 2022-23. Sugar production in Mexico was forecast at 4,747,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 127,518 tonnes, or 2.6%, from February and down 476,766 tonnes, or 9%, from the prior year. Mexico production has mostly been reduced due to drought. Some in the trade believe Mexico’s production this year may be closer to 4.5 million tonnes.

“All relevant (Mexican) production parameters through March 2 are several deviations below 10-year averages with no improvement being seen as time advances,” the USDA said.

US tariff-rate quota (TRQ) imports were forecast at 1,750,000 short tons, up 137,789 tons from February after the USDA announced a raw sugar TRQ increase earlier this week. High-duty imports were unchanged from February at a record-high 715,000 tons. Total imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,331,000 tons, up 5,000 tons from February but down 283,000 tons from 2022-23. 

The USDA slashed its forecast of domestic beet sugar production to 5,172,000 tons, down 155,761 tons from February and down 15,000 tons from last year “on higher beet pile shrink mostly due to warmer-than-average temperatures in the Red River Valley and Michigan and on lower sucrose recovery reported in aggregate by beet processors.” Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,071,000 tons, up 46,711 tons from February and up 8,000 tons from a year earlier due mainly to a bump up in Florida. Total domestic sugar production was forecast at 9,243,000 tons, down 109,050 tons from February and down 7,000 tons from 2022-23.

The trade had widely anticipated lower forecasts for Mexico sugar production, US imports of sugar from Mexico and US beet sugar production. 

Total US sugar supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,416,000 tons, down 104,000 tons from February and down 269,000 tons from 2022-23.

There were no changes from February to US domestic sugar deliveries or exports.

The 2023-24 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 13.4%, down from 14.2% in February, down from 14.3% in 2021-22 and 2022-23, and below the USDA’s target range of 13.5% to 15.5%.