WASHINGTON — As expected, the US Department of Agriculture in its April 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report lowered from March its forecasts for domestic beet sugar production and imports from Mexico, but higher tariff-rate quota (TRQ), re-export program and high-tier imports with no changes in deliveries resulted in slightly higher ending stocks for 2023-24.   

US 2023-24 sugar imports from Mexico were forecast at 498,644 short tons, raw value, down 167,020 tons, or 25%, from 666,000 tons as the March forecast, and down 657,000 tons, or 57%, from 2022-23. 

But higher imports in other categories more than offset lower imports from Mexico, with total imports forecast at 3,417,000 tons, up 86,000 tons, or 2.6%, from March but down 197,000 tons, or 5.5%, from 2022-23. TRQ imports were forecast at 1,775,000 tons, up 25,086 tons from March on “higher imports expected from Argentina and Panama,” other program (re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs) at 288,000 tons, up 88,000 tons, and high-tier imports at a record 855,000 tons, up 140,000 tons. The USDA forecast a 2023-24 TRQ shortfall of 66,690 tons. 

Domestic beet sugar production was forecast at 5,144,000 tons, down 27,340 tons from March on “lower forecast sucrose recovery,” and down 43,000 tons from 2022-23. Beet pile shrink was unchanged from March at 9%, although anecdotal reports from beet processors indicated ongoing losses in beet piles. Cane sugar production in 2023-24 was unchanged from March at 4,071,000 tons.

Total 2023-24 US sugar supply was forecast at 14,474,000 tons, up 58,000 tons from March but down 211,000 tons, or 1.4%, from 2022-23.

US sugar exports were forecast at 197,634 tons, up 37,634 tons from March “as increased program exports more than offset a reduction of other sugar exports to Mexico,” and up 116,000 tons, or 141%, from 82,000 tons in 2022-23.

Deliveries for food were unchanged from March at 12,450,000 tons (down 23,000 tons from 2022-23). 

“Deliveries for human consumption were low in February due to a likely underreporting of direct consumption imports in February that will see an offsetting expansion in March,” the USDA said. 

Total sugar use in 2023-24 was forecast at 12,753,000 tons, up 38,000 tons from March but down 90,000 tons from 2022-23.

Ending stocks for 2023-24 were forecast at 1,722,000 tons, up 21,000 tons from March but down 121,000 tons from 2022-23. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 13.5%, down from 13.4% in March and down from 14.3% in both 2022-23 and 2021-22.

Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production was forecast at 4,572,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 175,090 tonnes, or 3.7%, from March and down 651,856 tonnes, or 12.5%, from 2022-23. Mexico’s imports were forecast at 575,000 tonnes, up 81,000 tonnes, or 16%, from March and up 290,000 tonnes, or 102%, from last year. Mexico’s 2023-24 exports were forecast at 471,000 tonnes, down 124,000 tonnes, or 21%, from March and down 540,000 tonnes, or 53%, from the prior year. Domestic sugar use in Mexico was forecast at 4,618,000 tonnes, up 25,000 tonnes, or 0.5%, from March but down 9,000 tonnes from 2022-23. Ending stocks in Mexico were forecast at 894,000 tonnes, up 5,000 tonnes from March and up 59,000 tonnes from the prior year.

“Production of low-polarity sugar (exportable to the United States) is reduced by 107,206 tonnes to 320,067 as producers have hastened the trend toward more profitable estandar sugar for the domestic market at the expense of less low polarity sugar,” the USDA said. “The low polarity sugar share of total production is at 7%, down from 9% last month. Assuming that all projected low polarity sugar is exported to the US market and like last year constitutes 75% of the total exported, exports to the United States are projected at 426,757 tonnes, a decrease of 142,941.”