Perhaps the biggest debate over snacking involves the latest in obesity, weight loss and diet drugs like Wegovy and Ozempic and the impact they might have on the snack industry.

Historically, the market has been resilient against a host of fad diets and weight loss trends, but it’s never seen drugs like this that reduce hunger and provide proven results.

Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor, consumer goods and foodservice insights, Circana, suggested that snack manufacturers should keep a close eye on how popular the use of the drugs become.

“Will it have an impact? Yes, that's why is one of your headwinds,” she said at SNAC International’s Executive Leadership Forum last fall. “Is it one that's going to make a catastrophic decline in your business? It should not.”

Linsey Herman, vice president of product development, Factory Innovation LLC, Bethlehem, Pa., suggested recently that drugs like Ozempic may change the amount people eat but not necessarily what they buy.

“Permissible indulgence has become more popular because, even if you have less of an appetite, you believe you can still enjoy these indulgent snacks,” she explained. “You’re just not going to eat as much. GLP-1 meds have allowed consumers to lose weight without dramatically changing their eating and purchasing habits. The loss of appetite from the drugs will reduce frequency of purchase for many, but they may still enjoy indulgent snacks. For long term success, though, consumers will need to make permanent changes to their habits – and that remains to be seen.”

Herman called the new weight loss drugs “an important trend,” but it may impact the industry in ways they didn’t expect.

“It’s potentially a bigger issue for companies focusing on traditional diet solutions and especially around meal replacement because it is obviously a hot new approach to weight loss that we’ve never seen before at this scale,” she noted. 

Overall, diets come and go. Take the keto craze, which has calmed down from its heyday a few years ago, according to Mark Singleton, vice president of sales and marketing, Rudolph Foods, Dallas.

“We track keto chatter, keto searches and keto discussions on the web, and keto searches are down 70% since 2021,” he said. “This is my third low-carb fad in my lifetime, and I cannot wait until the fourth.”

In general, consumers are eating fewer products, but he doesn’t know if it’s attributed to the economy, shifts in purchasing behavior or drugs like Ozempic.

“When people try pork rinds for the first time, they taste great,” Singleton said. “That’s what separates us from other keto products. Pork rinds are reasonably priced, and if people try pork rinds, they eat them again because it’s a great-tasting snack food.”

Dan Morgan, president and chief executive officer, G&S Foods, Abbottstown, Pa., believes that innovative protein-packed snacks that are both delicious and satisfying will hold a winning hand in the future.

“I've observed a significant surge in demand for high-protein snacks within the weight loss medication user group,” he said. “This presents a major opportunity for the snack industry.”

In the broader market, some products like crackers might not be impacted by the weight loss drug movement.

“Crackers frequently are viewed as part of a smaller meal,” said Cara Figgins, president, Partners, a Tasteful Choice company based in Des Moines, Wash. “They’re often eaten by people who are thinking, ‘I'm not going to eat a giant sandwich. I'm going to have a few pieces of ham a few pieces of cheese and a few crackers,’ which is different than snacking between meals.”

Herman noted that plant-based and non-GMO snacks have staying power.

“It isn’t about being trendy. It’s that consumers are reading labels and looking for simplicity,” she said. “Companies that try to create better health profiles on their labels is absolutely important. Another adjacent macro trend that we’re seeing is sugar replacement with sweeteners that seem more virtuous and closer to nature, like dates and date sugar, coconut sugar, fruit purees and syrups, and honey. We Americans love our sweets and snacks, and permissible indulgence remains an important part of that.”

This article is an excerpt from the April 2024 issue of Baking & Snack. To read the entire feature on Snacks, click here.