ONDON — With anticipated cuts in corn production in Argentina and sub-Saharan Africa and smaller wheat crops expected in Russia, Ukraine and the United States, the International Grains Council (IGC) revised its monthly projection for total grains output lower by 10 million tonnes for the 2024-25 marketing year.
In its latest Grain Market Report, released on May 23, the IGC forecast total grains production at 2.312 billion tonnes, which is still 1% higher than this year’s projected total.
“In a reversal to the trends in the season before, (corn) production is seen lower, but with year-on-year gains across other commodities,” the IGC said, noting a slight decline in corn output to 1.22 billion tonnes.
The IGC said consumption growth “is expected to be fairly tepid,” rising by 9 million tonnes year-on-year to 2.32 billion tonnes, with food, feed and industrial use of grains forecast at new peaks.
Closing stocks are expected to continue to slide, reaching a 10-year low of 580 million tonnes, led by declines for wheat and corn, with exporter inventories at 142 million tonnes, a 3% decline year-on-year, the Council said.
With large outturns expected in the United States, Brazil and Argentina, global soybean production is seen increasing by 6% to a record 414 million tonnes in 2024-25, the report noted. However, soybean consumption also is forecast to increase by 6% to a record 404 million tonnes.
“An uplift in demand for soya products is set to underpin record processing and total use,” the IGC said.
Record rice production is projected for the coming marketing year, with an expected global output of 523 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption (801 million tonnes) is expected to outpace production (795 million) for the second straight year, with carryover stocks falling to 260 million tonnes, the lowest level since 2018-19.
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index increased by 9% month-on-month mainly due to soaring wheat, soybeans and barley prices. The May price index of 245 is still 5% lower than the same month in 2023.
