WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its June 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for 2023-24 lowered from May its forecasts for domestic sugar production, more than offsetting an increase in high-tier imports, resulting in lower ending stocks and a lower stocks-to-use ratio. For 2024-25, lower beginning stocks and lower production more than offset higher high-tier imports, also dropping ending stocks and the stocks-to-use ratio. Delivery forecasts were unchanged for both years.    

For the current marketing year, the USDA lowered estimated beet sugar production by 50,040 short tons, raw value, to 5,045,000 tons, on lower sugar from desugared molasses, slightly higher beet pile shrink and slightly lower sucrose recovery. Cane sugar production was lowered 1,000 tons, to 4,035,000 tons, with total 2023-24 production estimated at 9,080,000 tons, down about 51,000 tons from the May forecast.

Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,454,000 tons, up 16,000 tons from May based on tariff-rate quota imports of 1,798,000 tons, unchanged, imports from Mexico at 466,000 tons, down 31,434 tons, based on lower production of below 99.2 polarity sugar, more than offset by high-tier imports at a record-high 902,000 tons, up 47,146 tons.

Total supply in 2023-24 was forecast at 14,377,000 tons, down 34,257 tons from May.

Deliveries for food in 2023-24 were forecast at 12,350,000 tons, unchanged from May but down 123,000 tons from 2022-23. Exports and “other” were unchanged from May, leaving total use unchanged at 12,653,000 tons.

Ending stocks in 2023-24 were forecast at 1,724,000 tons, down 34,257 tons from May, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.6%, down from 13.9% in May and down from 14.3% in 2022-23.

The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,200,000 tons, down 31,848 tons from May, including beet sugar at 5,111,000 tons, unchanged, and cane sugar at 4,089,000 tons, down 31,848 tons on lower processors’ forecasts for Florida. 

Source: Sosland Publishing Co. 

Total imports in 2024-25 were projected at 3,076,000 tons, up 48,000 tons due to a like increase in high-tier imports, forecast at 263,000 tons.

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was projected at 14,000,000 tons, down 18,959 tons from May as lower beginning stocks and lower production more than offset higher high-tier imports.

Sugar use projections for 2024-25 were unchanged from May, including deliveries for food at 12,350,000 tons, exports at 100,000 tons and “other” at 105,000 tons, for total use at 12,555,000 tons.

Ending stocks were projected at 1,445,000 tons, down 18,959 tons from May, with an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 11.5%, down from 11.7% a month earlier and down from 13.6% in 2023-24.

It should be noted that the USDA has not yet included specialty sugar tariff-rate quota imports for 2024-25 that have not yet been announced by the US government. When adding the expected 231,000 tons of specialty sugar, the ending stocks-to-use ratio would be about 13.3%. 

The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2023-24 sugar production at 4,718,000 tonnes, actual weight, up 69,067 tonnes from May on higher harvested area. Imports were forecast at 596,000 tonnes, up 21,000 tonnes. Domestic use was unchanged at 4,618,000 tonnes. Exports were forecast at 398,704 tonnes (all to the United States), down 170,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were forecast at 1,132,000 tonnes, up 260,000 tonnes from May.

The USDA noted that Mexico’s production of low polarity sugar for export to the United States “continues its downward trend and is now estimated at 6% (of total sugar production), down from 6.5% last month,” equal to 71% of total exports. 

Mexico’s 2024-25 sugar production was projected at 5,189,000 tonnes, unchanged from May, with imports at 343,000 tonnes, down 182,159 tonnes. Projected exports and domestic use were unchanged from May at 1,024,000 tonnes and 4,661,000 tonnes, respectively. Ending stocks were projected at 978,457 tonnes, up 78,277 tonnes from May as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower imports.