KANSAS CITY — The most recent editorial published on this page shared data underscoring that trends toward away-from-home eating prevailing before the pandemic are back in place afterward, notwithstanding recent restaurant sector sluggishness. A presentation on consumer trends delivered last month at the 2024 Sosland Publishing Purchasing Seminar showed other prominent food consumption trends have yet to revert to pre-pandemic behaviors.
Josh Sosland, editor of Milling & Baking News. Source: Sosland Publishing Co.
In addition to the comprehensive review of key ingredient markets at the seminar annually, the event frequently includes an update on changing consumer trends. This year’s presenter on the subject, Darren Seifer, an industry adviser at Circana, offered a range of important insights for the audience, including several demonstrating residual effects on eating preferences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Among changes in eating habits identified within days or weeks of the pandemic outbreak in March 2020 was a gravitation toward so-called comfort foods and flagging interest in certain (but not all) wellness products. Examples in baked foods sales trends included a shift toward products baked with enriched white flour and away from whole grain products. Bakers are aware the trend has persisted, evident in persistently depressed whole wheat flour production data. In 2023, US mills produced 17,984,000 cwts of whole wheat flour, equating to 4.3% of total US flour production. The total was down 4.3 million cwts, or 19%, from 2019, when whole wheat accounted for 5.3% of flour production.
Seifer’s data showed a similar trend in the snacking category. In the six years leading up to the pandemic, annual eatings of sweet snacks and better-for-you snacks were nearly equal at roughly 370 to 375, with the better-for-you category maintaining a modest edge. Sweet snacks took a small lead in the first year of the pandemic, and the gap has widened every year since. In 2023, consumers on average enjoyed a sweet treat just over 400 times, about 20% more than better-for-you snacks, at about 330. Meanwhile, the lead enjoyed by savory snacks above better-for-you snacks widened to more than 40%, from about 27% in 2019.
An encouraging data point in Seifer’s presentation around the topic relates to gluten avoidance. While flattening in late 2023 and early 2024, Circana statistics showed a decrease of nearly 20% in the number of adults seeking to avoid gluten. Also losing ground during this period were the percentage of adults seeking to increase intake of organic foods (down about 25%) and plant-based foods (also down more than 25%).
Seifer’s presentation presented a high-level and nuanced look at broader consumer spending trends. Pressure on unit volume sales over the past year or so generally has been blamed on rising inflation levels and a squeeze on consumers. Circana data showing consumer spending trends in other sectors suggest the reality may be more complicated. Retail spending on food and beverages rose 2.6% in 2023, climbing to $2.3 trillion. Numerous categories grew much faster. Challenging the idea belt-tightening consumers are only spending on absolute necessities, the fastest growing categories in 2023 tracked by Circana all could be called discretionary. The media/entertainment sector, principally streaming services such as Netflix and Hulu, enjoyed a 17.7% jump in 2023, to $42 billion. Prestige beauty, higher-end cosmetics, was up 12.2%, and the pet category, including food and accessories, was up 8.6%.
By taking a step back, Seifer also demonstrated sequential improvement in unit sales trends, even if overall sales in the fourth quarter last year remained lower than the same quarter of 2022. The fourth-quarter decrease was 0.5%, far smaller than 2% in the first quarter of 2023 and reductions in 2022 ranging between 1.2% and 2.6%. Units were up 0.9% in the first quarter of this year, but bakery products lagged, sustaining a 0.2% decrease. Bakery was the weakest food sector as categorized in the Circana data other than seafood (down 4.8%). The data offered valuable insights into both the encouraging trends and ongoing challenges experienced presently by grain-based foods.
