FARGO, ND — An examination of hundreds of North Dakota wheat fields during this week’s annual three-day tour revealed a crop in overall good condition despite minor pest and disease pressure stemming from excessive rain. The tour confirmed the crop most likely will be significantly larger than the drought-affected 2022 and 2023 seasons.

On the basis of 237 spring wheat field stops, scouts projected the 2024 North Dakota spring wheat crop at an average 54.5 bus per acre (bpa), a 15% increase from 47.4 bpa as the 2023 tour’s final yield estimate and compared with 56 bpa as the US Department of Agriculture’s July 1 forecast for the Peace Garden State. The yield forecast on the basis of 42 field stops through northeastern North Dakota on the tour’s final day was 61 bpa, which compared with 50.6 bpa as the day 3 forecast at the conclusion of the 2023 tour.

Reports from 10 cars of four scouts apiece, issued following the final, abbreviated day of field appraisals, measurements and calculations, echoed the findings of the previous two days. Wheat scab was the most commonly discovered factor, with a relatively small presence in most fields. The estimated time until harvest was three to four weeks with some fields further behind developmentally after being planted late. Those fields might not be ready for another five to six weeks.

Brian Walker of BW Consulting LLC moderated the tour’s daily discussions.

“As a review of the goals when we set out on this tour four days ago,” he said,” we were looking to define the crop prospects as best we could, learn about agriculture generally and North Dakota specifically. As always it was amazing how everything looked across the many different crops in the fields. We also wanted to meet people from across the wheat and related industries, to network and to have some fun, which I think we did.”

The tour visited no durum fields on day 3 as the concluding routes do not run through North Dakota’s most prominent durum areas to the west. The tour as a whole generated a durum wheat yield forecast of 45.3 bpa on the basis of 18 field stops, which compared with 43.9 bpa as the 2023 tour’s durum estimate.