WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture on Aug. 12 lowered its estimate for US all-wheat production this year based on forecasts for lower soft red winter, other spring and durum wheat production that more than offset increased hard red winter and white winter wheat forecasts. The Department lowered its forecast for 2024-25 global and US wheat ending stocks.

The USDA forecast 2024 all-wheat US production at 1,982 million bus, down 26 million bus, or 1.2%, from July but up 9% from 2023. US winter wheat production was forecast at 1,361 million bus, up 20 million bus, or 1.4%, from July and up 9% from 2023. Included were forecasts for a 2% increase from July in hard red winter wheat production to 776 million bus, and a 4% increase in white winter wheat production to 243 million bus.

The white winter wheat forecast comprised 19.3 million bus hard white winter and 224 million bus of soft white winter.

Those increases were more than offset by the USDA lowering from July its forecasts for soft red winter wheat less than 1% to 342 million bus, dropping its other spring wheat forecast by 6% to 544 million bus (up 8% from 2023) and reducing the durum wheat forecast by 14% to 76.9 million bus (up 30% from 2023).

Of the total other spring wheat production, 499 million bus, or 92%, was projected to be hard red spring wheat.

US winter wheat production was based on an Aug. 1 yield estimate at 53.2 bus per acre, up 1.2 bus from July and up 2.6 bus from 50.6 bus as the 2023 average yield. Winter wheat area expected to be harvested for grain or seed was estimated at 25.6 million acres, down 1% from the USDA’s June 28 Acreage report, but up 4% from 2023.

US other spring wheat production forecasts were based on Aug. 1 conditions and yields expected to average 52.6 bus per harvested acre,

down ½ a bu per acre from July but up 6.6 bus from 2023. If realized, the US other spring wheat average yield would be a record high. The area harvested for grain or seed was expected to total 10.3 million acres, down 5% from June’s Acreage report and down 6% from 2023.

The US all-wheat production forecast matched the low end of a range of pre-report expectations from analysts. The all-winter, hard red winter and soft red winter production forecasts were within the respective ranges. The white winter forecast topped expectations, while the other spring wheat and durum projections fell below analysts’ expectations.

The lower US wheat production forecasts, along with slightly higher domestic use and a steady export projection, was behind a decrease in the forecast for June 1, 2025, carryover. The USDA forecast the 2025 US wheat carryout at 828 million bus, down 28 million bus, or 3.3%, from July but up 18% from 702 million bus this year. The USDA left unchanged from July its forecasts for wheat imports and exports this year at 105 million and 825 million bus, respectively. Food use of wheat was raised 2 million bus, to 964 million bus, up 3 million bus, or 0.3%, from 2024. Carryover forecasts were raised 12 million bus for hard red winter wheat, but lowered for other classes, including hard red spring, down 24 million bus; white winter, down 2 million bus; and durum, down 14 million bus. The expected soft red winter wheat carryout as of June 1, 2025, was left unchanged at 136 million bus.

The USDA lowered its global wheat ending stocks forecast by 620,000 tonnes from July. If realized, the global carryout would be down 5.74 million tonnes from 262.2 million tonnes in 2023-24. The lower ending stocks came despite increased production forecasts for Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia. Those were offset by the lower US production estimate, a decrease in the EU crop forecast and increased world consumption.