Market Insights by Sosland Publishing

KANSAS CITY — Although damage still was being assessed, deadly Hurricane Helene’s devastation of the Georgia pecan crop was almost immediately evident as some growers lost nearly 100% of their trees, many of which were more than 40 years old. Damage was widespread across the Southeast.   

“Hurricane Helene caused catastrophic damage in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia and West Virginia,” the US Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency said. “There are also continuing impacts from Hurricane Debby in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.” That was before Hurricane Milton struck Florida.

Hurricane Helene made landfall Sept. 26 in Florida’s Big Bend region as a category 4 storm with winds of 140 mph, but unlike many storms that quickly decline in strength once over land, Helene remained powerful much further inland, especially inundating Georgia, North Carolina and surrounding areas with high winds and heavy rain that caused significant flooding. Devastation to property and the loss of more than 220 lives to date have been well documented.

Initial USDA estimates indicate crop losses may reach $7 billion from more than 38,000 crop insurance policies covering about 4.8 million affected acres across the Southeast. The agency has directed crop insurance companies to expedite payments and farmers to document damages and losses.  

Other estimates (not limited to agriculture) include $15 to $26 billion in property damage by Moody’s Analytics and total damage and economic losses between $95 billion to $110 billion from AccuWeather.  

“Significant damage to cotton, peanut and soybean fields was noted, along with catastrophic damage to many pecan orchards and timber stands,” the USDA’s Georgia state office said in its weekly crop update issued Oct. 7.  

Winter wheat and other winter crop harvests had been complete for some time, but wheat, oats and rye were being planted and fall row crop harvests were underway across the Southeast. Cotton was especially vulnerable because cotton lint exposed to rain and/or flooding in open bolls becomes unusable. Georgia’s cotton crop had 84% open bolls and was 12% harvested as of Oct. 6, the crop update said. Peanuts were 29% dug and 15% harvested. And soybeans were 30% harvested.

By the numbers, Georgia is the nation’s largest producer of broilers, peanuts and pecans and second largest of cotton lint and cottonseed. In the USDA’s September Crop Production report, the state was forecast to account for 52% of total US peanut production and 14% of all cotton outturn (Texas is No. 1 in cotton with 29%). In 2023, Georgia accounted for 42% of total US pecan production (48% in 2022). The USDA issues its first pecan report annually in October. About 2,600 pecan growers nationwide, including more than 350 in Georgia, received USDA surveys the week of Sept. 23. Growers who didn’t respond by Sept. 29 were contacted by telephone or in person by the USDA. The first 2024 pecan production forecast will be in the Oct. 11 Crop Production report. How much of the hurricane damage will be reflected in the survey results is unknown.   

Early estimates from Georgia Governor Brian Kemp indicated more than a third of the state’s cotton crop was a total loss, up to 30% of peanuts were lost, 48,000 acres of pecans equal to about 34% of total bearing acreage were damaged or destroyed and four million acres of timberland were affected, along with more than 220 poultry houses destroyed and 100s damaged.

An earlier assessment from the University of Georgia called the storm “absolutely devastating” for the pecan industry and “by far, the worst we have experienced,” exceeding damage from Hurricane Michael (that exceeded $2 billion for agriculture) six years ago that up to now, had been the most devastating storm on record in Georgia. Trees of 40 to 50 years old were blown down, the university said, with about 23% of Georgia’s pecan acreage affected.

New pecan trees take five to six years to reach production, and about 10 years to reach full nut bearing capacity, according to the University of Georgia. While replanting will allow growers to replace older varieties with newer varieties, years of lost production, along with the cost of replanting, will weigh heavily on the Georgia pecan industry.

“Hurricane Helene struck the US Southeast as crops were maturing for harvest and growers will need emergency assistance,” said Debbie Stabenow, Senate Agriculture Committee chairwoman. “This was a horrible blow to farmers, ranchers and rural communities across the Southeast."