WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Oct. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) lowered from September its estimate of 2023-24 US sugar production and supply but slightly raised its outlook for 2024-25, leaving deliveries unchanged for both years.    

The data indicate ample sugar supplies in 2023-24, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio for the year just ended estimated at 17.6%, down from 18% in September, and adequate supplies for 2024-25 at 14.3%, up from 14.2% in September and equal to the 2022-23 ratio. The 2023-24 ratio remains inflated by record-high high tier imports, estimated at 1,232,183 tons, up 5% from September and up 171% from 455,000 tons in 2022-23. High-tier imports for 2024-25 were forecast at 345,000 tons, up 28,000 tons from September and still historically high, though down sharply from last year.

For the 2023-24 marketing year, the USDA estimated beet sugar production at 9,197,000 tons, down 68,000 tons from September, based on a 41,743-ton decrease in beet sugar (about equal to the prior month’s increase), at 5,117,000 tons, “on lower August and September production,” and a 26,078-ton decrease in cane sugar (due to weather-related harvest delays in Louisiana caused by Hurricane Francine), at 4,080,000 tons.

Imports in 2023-24 were forecast at 3,854,000 tons, up 20,629 tons from September based on a 62,000-ton increase in high-tier imports, at 1,232,183 tons, a 35,000-ton decrease in tariff-rate quota imports, a 7,000-ton decrease in re-export imports, putting “other program” imports at 313,000 tons, and a 1,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico, at 521,000 tons. High-tier imports of raw sugar were estimated at 886,539 tons and of refined sugar at 289,483 tons, with the remaining 56,161 tons accounted for by sugar from imported molasses.

Total sugar supply in 2023-24 was estimated at 14,894,000 tons, down 47,192 tons from September but up 209,000 tons from 2022-23.

No changes were made in estimated 2023-24 sugar use, with deliveries for food at 12,300,000 tons, exports at 225,000 tons, and “other” at 138,000 tons.

Ending stocks were estimated at 2,231,000 tons, down 47,000 tons, or 2.1%, from September but up 388,000 tons, or 21%, from 1,843,000 tons in 2022-23.

The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,495,000 tons, up 21,000 tons from September, with beet sugar at 5,347,000 tons, up 36,283 tons “on increased sugar beet production and on revisions made to August and September production for both 2024 and 2025,” and cane sugar at 4,148,000 tons, down 15,000 tons. If realized, beet, cane and total sugar production in 2024-25 would be record high.

Imports for 2024-25 were raised 38,000 tons, to 2,568,000 tons, based on a 10,100-ton increase in tariff-rate quota imports “that did not enter as expected in the calendar third quarter (and) are now expected to enter in the fourth quarter,” at 1,628,000 tons, and a 28,000-ton increase in high-tier imports, at 345,000 tons. 

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was projected at 14,293,000 tons, up 11,000 tons from September as lower beginning stocks were more than offset by higher production and imports.

There were no changes from September made to 2024-25 sugar use projections, with deliveries for food at 12,300,000 tons, exports at 100,000 tons, and “other” at 105,000 tons, with total use at 12,505,000 tons.

Ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,788,000 tons, up 11,746 tons, or 0.6%, from September but down 443,000 tons, or 20%, from 2023-24.

Mostly minor changes from September were made for 2023-24 estimates and 2024-25 projections for Mexico. For the current year, production was unchanged at 4,704,000 tonnes, actual weight, imports for consumption were raised 38,000 tonnes, to 854,000 tonnes, exports were raised 1,000 tonnes, to 446,000 tonnes, and domestic use was unchanged at 4,532,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were estimated at 1,414,000 tonnes, up 37,000 tonnes from September, with an ending stocks-to-total use ratio of 28.4%.