KANSAS CITY — Rain is in the forecasts this week across key areas of US hard red winter wheat country, but a pattern change bringing multiple subsequent moisture events is needed to counteract enduring dryness since seeding the 2025 crop began.
“There hasn’t really been any rain at all since basically the planting season started,” said Justin Gilpin, chief executive officer of Kansas Wheat. “The Kansas Mesonet website shows that pretty much the entire state of Kansas is nearing four straight weeks of consecutive days with less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Smith Center, Kan., has gone 29 straight days without a tenth of an inch of rain. If that happens in January or other typical low-precipitation months, it is different, but during planting, it has created an extremely open window for fall harvest and dry soils, along with higher temperatures, has really not been good for wheat that’s wanting to come up. For wheat planted early that did emerge, conditions have gone backwards really fast because the plants that have started growing just haven’t had any topsoil moisture to really draw on to get any type of root establishment.”
The US Department of Agriculture has yet to offer its first condition ratings of the 2025 crop, generally preferring to wait until planting reaches the 50% mark, which means the aggregate rating could re-enter the weekly Crop Progress report soon. The USDA on Oct. 15 said winter wheat seeding as of Oct. 13 had reached 68% in Kansas (52% a week earlier, 66% as the recent five-year average for the date), 43% in Oklahoma (32%, 60%), 61% in Texas (51%, 60%), 91% in Colorado (82%, 92%), 96% in Nebraska (87%, 92%), 85% in South Dakota (70%, 89%) and 68% in Montana (64%, 72%).
Three-to-five-day forecasts indicate potential for rain Oct. 16-20, with the highest chances for precipitation within an area stretching from the Kansas-Colorado-Nebraska border south through the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles, as well as covering most of eastern Colorado’s wheat area and about the western quarter of Kansas.
“What we need is a pattern change, not just one system coming through,” Gilpin said. “We have above-normal temperatures coming prior to that system coming. Just about all of Kansas is a red flag warning for fire danger because things are just so dry and temperatures supposed to warm for the next three days that there’s some real risk of wildfires for the state.”
What forecasts don’t show as of mid-October is an enduring shift toward more rain events to shore up poor topsoil moisture supplies vital to establishing and developing wheat plants.
The USDA pinpointed topsoil moisture supplies rated adequate as of Oct. 22 at 25% in Kansas (75% short to very short), 23% in Oklahoma (77%), 24% in Texas (76%), 31% in Colorado (68%), 14% in Nebraska (86%), 27% in South Dakota (73%) and 30% in Montana (70%). Of the principal hard red winter wheat production states, only Colorado had any surplus topsoil moisture at 1%.
“If we could get some cooler temperatures and get some type of precipitation front to move through that we haven’t seen in a month, that would be great, but everything I’ve seen on the map really shows the best chances for rain are in the far southwest, west, central parts of Kansas,” Gilpin said. “The lower chances of rain are through that central corridor on into eastern Kansas, where it’s badly needed.”
Though the USDA has yet to rate wheat conditions, fields in far southwest Kansas were looking good according to anecdotal photos seen on social media site X. A wheat field near Ulysses, Kan., looked to be in decent shape. In that area, early planted wheat received rain in September. But the spigot turned off and the soil crusted over, inhibiting emergence. The field was replanted, emerged and that region was set for another rain event this week. But it’s the eastern three-fourths of Kansas that have a far greater need for moisture.
“Wichita, Hutchinson, Salina are just bone dry,” Gilpin said. “Where we have some rising concerns is on acres that are double cropped behind soybeans and potentially corn, especially in that central and southeast part of Kansas where topsoil is extremely dry. It is going to take some moisture not only to get those double crop acres established or emerged, but then that followed through pattern for getting it established going into winter dormancy. Beyond just the dryness of the full state, double-crop acres are especially at risk because of lack of moisture. Especially in eastern Kansas along the Interstate 35 corridor, there is a substantial amount of wheat acres planted right behind soybeans as part of the cropping rotation. Soybeans have come off pretty efficiently, rapidly because of the really dry warm conditions we’ve had and then that double-crop wheat that traditionally gets planted right behind is going into very dry soil that just hasn’t had any moisture, which is becoming more and more concerning the later we get in the year.”
