WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Nov. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report sharply lowered its forecast of 2024-25 US sugar ending stocks from October and from a year ago, dropping the projected ending stocks-to-use ratio for the current year to 11.7% from 14.3% in October and 16.9% in 2023-24.     

Lower ending stocks for 2024-25 were the result of lower beginning stocks, lower beet and cane sugar production and higher domestic deliveries with only a slight increase in high-tier imports compared with October forecasts.

The USDA forecast 2024-25 US sugar production at 9,276,000 tons, down 2.3% from October, with beet sugar at 5,210,000 tons, down 137,000 tons, or 2.6%, and cane sugar at 4,066,000 tons, down 82,000 tons, or 2%, with all the cane decline in Louisiana. The USDA lowered production forecasts based on lower sugar beet and cane yields per acre and higher beet harvested area and sugar production in September counted in the 2023-24 marketing year. 

Changes to imports for 2024-25 were minimal, with high-tier imports forecast at 358,000 tons, up 13,000 tons from October. Tariff-rate quota, other program and imports from Mexico all were unchanged. 

Total sugar supply in 2024-25 was forecast at 14,019,000 tons, down 274,000 tons, or 1.9%, from October and down 957,000 tons, or 6%, from 2023-24.

Sugar deliveries for food in 2024-25 were projected at 12,350,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from October but down 4,000 tons from 2023-24. Other categories were unchanged, with total use forecast at 12,555,000 tons, up 50,000 tons from last month but down 259,000 tons, or 2%, from the prior year.

Ending stocks in 2024-25 were projected at 1,464,000 tons, down 324,000 tons, or 18%, from October and down 698,000 tons, or 32%, from 2023-24.  

Numerous changes were made to USDA estimates for 2023-24, which ended Sept. 30.

Production was estimated at 9,368,000 tons, up 171,000 tons from October, with beet sugar at 5,236,000 tons, up 119,000 tons, and refined cane at 4,133,000 tons, up 53,000 tons based on a like increase in Louisiana. The beet number was raised because of early harvest before Oct. 1.

Imports were lowered by 89,000 tons, to 3,765,000 tons, due to an 88,000-ton drop in other program imports, at 225,000 tons, and a 1,000-ton drop in high-tier imports, at 1,231,000 tons. 

Total supply was estimated at 14,976,000 tons, up 82,000 tons from October.

On the use side of the equation, exports, deliveries for food and miscellaneous were raised while the “other” category was lowered. Exports were estimated at 249,000 tons, up 24,000 tons from October, deliveries for food at 12,354,000 tons, up 54,000 tons, and miscellaneous at 105,000 tons, up 105,000 tons. Other deliveries were estimated at 106,000 tons, down 32,000 tons from October. Total use was estimated at 12,814,000 tons, up 151,000 tons from October.

Ending stocks were estimated at 2,169,000 tons, down 69,000 tons from October, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 16.9%, down from 17.6%. 

Mostly minor changes from October were made for 2023-24 estimates and 2024-25 projections for Mexico. For 2023-24, production was unchanged at 4,704,000 tonnes, actual weight, imports for consumption were lowered 93,000 tonnes, to 761,000 tonnes, exports were unchanged at 446,000 tonnes, and domestic use was lowered 96,000 tonnes, to 4,436,000 tonnes. Ending stocks were estimated at 1,418,000 tonnes, up 4,000 tonnes from October.