WASHINGTON — Fewer acres of field crops planted. Record US production of soybeans and corn. Greater global consumption of animal products. These will be just a few features of the agricultural landscape by 2033, according to long-term “baseline” projections released by the US Department of Agriculture on Nov. 7, which also show US net farm income shrinking as non-animal commodity prices fall.

The USDA projections for agricultural commodities and trade were based on macroeconomic indicators, existing US policy and international trade agreements, along with data through the October 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. Key indicators included global economic projections, food and energy costs and near-term volatility from world events such as the COVID-19 pandemic aftermath and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The projections mostly are useful for the next couple years forward, then tend to flatten over the final decade-plus.

Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic. Total US area planted to the eight major field crops (barley, corn, cotton, oats, rice, sorghum, soybeans and wheat) is forecast to fall from 253.9 million acres in 2023-24 to 248.5 million acres in 2024-25, sinking to 246.7 million acres by 2033-34. The decrease in the eight-crop area is projected to be driven largely by a reduction in acres planted to wheat and corn.

However, for wheat, soybeans and corn, rising yields will more than offset the decline in planted acres, delivering record US production of soybeans and corn, and more slowly rising US production of wheat, by 2033-34, the USDA projects. Improved yields are expected to be driven by advancements in farm technology and growing practices.

“Globally, through 2033, soybeans and soybean products exhibit the strongest growth in crops-related trade, followed by coarse grains,” the report’s authors wrote. “The growth is driven by changing global food consumption preferences toward a more meat-based diet, especially for poultry and pork.”

US production of all major animal products will grow through 2033-34, the USDA said, achieving record levels for all products except turkey.

Projections of global poultry consumption growth will overtake pork and beef consumption by 2033, with the largest increase in countries such as Pakistan, India, Vietnam, Morocco, the Philippines, South Korea, Iran and Mexico. The USDA projects that lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, such as China, will increasingly move away from grain-based dietary staples like rice, corn and millet, while consuming more animal proteins.

Meanwhile, the USDA projects net farm income and net cash income will decrease in 2024, in line with recent trends. Net farm income is expected to fall by $7.3 billion, or 4.8%, from $151.1 billion in 2023 to $143.8 billion in 2024. Net farm income is projected to dip as low as $123.6 billion by 2033, an 18% decrease from 2023.

Animal Products

A broad domestic and global expansion in the production, use and consumption of animal products is a key factor in the USDA’s long-term projections for overall US agricultural products, providing growth opportunities for the feed industry. 

With the exception of turkey, US production of all main animal products is projected to rise by near or above double-digit percentages by 2033-34, with all achieving record production levels during the period. From levels recorded by the USDA so far this year, commercial beef production is projected to rise by 11%, pork production by 14% and chicken production by 11% by 2033-34. Milk production is projected to rise by 9%, and egg production is expected to increase by 12%. Turkey production is projected to show the smallest growth rate among animal products at just 4%.

Soybeans

US soybean prices are projected to decline by 2033-34, the USDA said. The farm price of $12.90 per bu in 2023-24 will fall by $2.40 per bu, or 19%, to $10.50 per bu by 2026-27 and remain at that level through the end of the period. The soybean farm price is projected at $11.30 per bu in 2024-25 and $10.75 per bu in 2025-26.

Acres planted to soybeans are projected to slightly increase, from 83.6 million acres in 2023-24 to 87 million acres by 2033-34, up 4%. Harvested acres also are projected to increase by 4%. Yields are projected to increase, from 49.6 bus per acre in 2023-24 to 56.5 bus per acre in 2033-34. For 2024-25, the projections are 87 million acres planted, 86.1 million acres harvested and a yield of 52 bus per acre, with similar projections for 2025-26.

US soybean production is forecast to grow significantly, from 4,104 million bus in 2023-24 to 4,865 million bus by 2033-34, an increase of 19%. US soybean production is estimated at 4,475 million bus in 2024-25 and 4,520 million bus in 2025-26.

Over the period, US soybean exports are expected to rise 22%, from 1,755 million bus in 2023-24 to 2,135 million bus by 2033-34. US soybean exports are projected at 1,925 million bus for 2024-25 and 1,965 million bus for 2025-26.

Domestic demand for soybean meal is expected to increase, supported by the growth in livestock and poultry numbers. Exports of soybean meal also are expected to increase as US soybean crush capacity and crush volume expand over the next decade.

Corn

US corn prices are projected to decline, the USDA said. The farm price of $4.95 per bu in 2023-24 will fall by 65¢ per bu, or 13%, to $4.30 per bu by 2025-26 and remain at that level through 2033-34. The corn farm price in 2024-25 is projected at $4.50 per bu.

Acres planted to corn also are projected to decline, from 94.9 million acres in 2023-24 to 88 million acres by 2033-34, a decrease of 7%. Harvested acres are projected to decline by 8%. Yields are projected to increase, from 173 bus per acre in 2023-24 to 199 bus per acre in 2033-34. For 2024-25, the projections are 91 million acres planted, 83.1 million acres harvested and a yield of 181 bus per harvested acre; and for 2025-26, at 89 million acres planted, 81.1 million acres harvested and a yield of 183 bus per acre.

US corn production is projected to grow incrementally during the period, from 15,064 million bus in 2023-24 to a high of 15,940 million bus by 2033-34, an increase of 6%. US corn production is estimated at 15,040 million bus in 2024-25, falling to 14,840 million bus in 2025-26, and then resuming a growth pattern in subsequent years.

Over the same period, US corn exports are expected to rise 24%, from 2,025 million bus in 2023-24 to 2,500 million bus by 2033-34. US corn exports are projected at 2,050 million bus for 2024-25 and 2,100 million bus for 2025-26. Domestic corn use for feed is projected to increase as meat production grows to meet expanding export demand for beef, pork and poultry.

Wheat

US wheat prices are projected to decline from levels of recent years. The average price of wheat paid to farmers of $7.30 per bu in 2023-24 will fall by $1.30 per bu, or 18%, to $6 per bu by 2026-27 and remain at that level through 2033-34, the USDA said. The wheat farm price is projected at $6.80 per bu in 2024-25 and $6.30 per bu in 2025-26.

Acres planted to wheat also are projected to decline, from 49.6 million acres in 2023-24 to 45.5 million acres by 2033-34, a decrease of 8%. Harvested acres are projected to remain flat. Yields, however, are projected to increase, from 48.6 bus per acre in 2023-24 to 53 bus per acre in 2033-34. For 2024-25, the projections are 48 million acres planted, 39.2 million acres harvested and a yield of 49.5 bus per acre; and for 2025-26, at 46 million acres planted, 37.6 million acres harvested and a yield of 49.9 bus per acre.

Total US wheat production is forecast to grow unevenly during the period, from 1,812 million bus in 2023-24 to a high of 1,972 million bus in 2033-34, an increase of 9%. US wheat production in 2024-25 is estimated at 1,940 million bus, with lower production totals forecast for the following six years before production recovers by 2031-32.

Over the same period, US wheat exports are expected to rise 31%, from 700 million bus in 2023-24 to 915 million bus by 2033-34. US wheat exports are projected at 800 million bus for 2024-25 and 825 million bus for 2025-26. Domestic food use for wheat is projected to increase modestly over the period, rising just 1.8 percent.