CHICAGO— The market researcher Circana expects retail food and beverage dollar sales to increase between 2.5% and 4% in 2025. Factors influencing the sales growth include an increase in price realization between 1.5% and 3.5%, continuing base price inflation and consumer demand for value-driven propositions, according to Circana.

Volume is also expected to increase between zero percent and 1% because of increased at-home dining in response to foodservice prices and channel migration. The updated predictions follow Circana’s midyear report which forecasted dollar sales growth between 2.5% to 3.5%, volume growth between zero and 1% and increased price realization of between 2% to 3% in 2025.

“Consumers are driven by a demand for value, impacting both volume and price/mix growth,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, global executive vice president and chief advisor at Circana. “We’re noticing that channels offering everyday value have become more influential. E-commerce solutions also are increasing convenience and price transparency, with online transactions now driving 35% of food and beverage dollar sales growth.”

This year, the food and beverage market has performed similarly to Circana’s 2024 predictions, with dollar sales up 2.6% compared to the researcher’s expectation of 2.3% growth. Volume grew 1.1%, in line with a prediction of 1% growth for 2024.

“Unscripted consumer behaviors add complexity to the market dynamics,” Lyons Wyatt said. “We’re seeing a shift from out-of-home dining, where traffic has fallen by 2%, to in-home meals, which rose by 1% in volume. Shopping patterns are also changing, with consumers making more trips, up 8.9%, but buying fewer items per trip … As consumers adopt more selective buying habits, they purchase and stock up on some products less often, delay certain purchases, and switch to alternatives as they reassess spending from necessity and make more room for discretionary items.”

Globally, Circana sees dollar sales increasing by 4% in 2025 in the Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) regions. Price realizations are expected to rise 3%, and volume is likely to trend similarly with growth between zero and 1%. The researcher identified the private label sector as a particular area of interest, which has grown to represent nearly 40% of all EMEA food and beverage sales.