KANSAS CITY — Egg supplies and prices have seen wide fluctuations in recent weeks and months, with the national press recently reporting that high egg prices were the result of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Trade sources suggest HPAI has contributed to egg supply and price volatility, but other factors also have been at play.

The egg industry has been on edge as HPAI mainly is spread by migrating wild birds, with the Mississippi Flyway crossing the Midwest egg producing region. But HPAI has yet to be detected in Midwest commercial table egg laying flocks this fall. 

The US Department of Agriculture’s Market News branch reported the wholesale price of grade A large eggs at a high of $4.34½ to $4.48½ per dozen for the week ended Sept. 9, falling to $2.03½ to $2.19½ per dozen during the weeks ended Oct. 4 and Oct. 11, then shooting back up to $4.32½ to $4.48½ per dozen as of Nov. 8, before dropping about 25¢ per dozen by late November. The fall highs were the highest reported by the USDA since January 2023, with record highs set the week ended Dec. 30, 2022, at $5.28½ to $5.47½ per dozen.

The record high egg prices in late 2022 clearly were attributed to HPAI, which resulted in the loss of about 58 million laying hens. Prices in 2022 far surpassed the highs set during the first major widespread outbreak of HPAI in 2014-15 when about 50 million laying hens were culled.

So far in 2024, about 26 million laying hens have been lost to HPAI, and most of those were earlier in the year with only 28 about 7.3 million culled since Oct. 1. So far this fall, HPAI outbreaks in commercial laying flocks have occurred in five states — California, Washington, Arizona, Utah and Colorado, with several also in Colorado in July.

The HPAI and the egg pricing situation appears different this year than in previous years. First, most of the outbreaks have been in cage-free flocks. The virus has contributed to tighter supplies of cage-free eggs, required in several states as well as by national restaurant chains, and offered in most grocery stores. California requires eggs and egg products from any origin (in-state or out-of-state) to be cage-free. Currently, about 40% of total US egg supplies come from cage-free f locks, according to the USDA.

Other factors also have contributed to high and fluctuating egg prices, including forced molting of hens, changes in seasonal demand patterns for eggs and egg products, and retail featuring of eggs.

Forced molting is when growers take hens out of production to prolong the chickens’ laying “career.” It typically happens during the winter months prior to Easter, which is a high-demand period for eggs. In 2024, many producers delayed molting to take advantage of high egg prices. The skewed molting times caused tighter supplies and price fluctuations at times different from the norm this year.

Trade sources also have noted stronger egg yolk and egg white demand for longer periods of time, which impacts supplies of egg products. Egg white demand typically was strongest after the year-end holidays when consumers were more diet conscious, but demand held up several months longer this year.

Egg yolk demand typically is strongest in the late spring, leading up to high salad dressing demand during the summer months as yolks are a key ingredient in mayonnaise and other salad dressings. Yolk demand carried further into the fall this year. Often, when white demand is highest, eggs are broken for whites and excess yolks are available at lower prices. And vice versa during the high yolk demand season. Those patterns were less evident this year.

Retail featuring (advertising) was a major factor in the late summer and early fall. Retailers typically feature eggs heading into the fall baking season as well as around major holidays. This year, retail featuring appeared earlier than usual in the fall, and may run continuously from Thanksgiving to Christmas because of the shorter time between the two holidays this year. That is expected to keep retail egg demand up.

Finally, egg losses must be put into perspective. The US table egg laying flock is about 312 million birds, according to the USDA. The loss of 7.3 million hens this fall was about 2.3% of the total flock. Table egg production in October totaled 7,891 million, down 4.2% from October 2023. Most of those decreases are from HPAI, but variations in supplies and prices at retail are the result of several additional factors that may or may not normalize in the next few months.