WASHINGTON — The Consumer Price Index for baked foods and cereal products fell 1.3% in November, the sharpest month-over-month decline in more than 85 years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the US Department of Labor. The index for all food at home also declined, falling 0.1%.

The 1.3% decline in the baked foods and cereals index was rare for several reasons. First, because month-over-month movement in the category is typically within a +/- 1% range, and second, because only twice in the past 50 years has the BLS reported a monthly decline of more than 0.9% in the category — in September 2005 (-0.9%) and August 1975 (-1%).

Contributing to the downward move in the index were sharp declines in flour and prepared flour mixes (down 3.1%, the sharpest decline since November 2019) and bread (down 1.3%, the sharpest decline since May 2020).

“Today’s CPI numbers show that inflation is a stubborn thing, and the US still has some work to do to fully tame it,” said Andy Harig, vice president of tax, trade, sustainability and policy development at FMI — The Food Industry Association. “Food-at-home remains well below the Fed’s overall 2% target, coming in at 1.6% on a year-over-year basis. But the slight tick upward to 0.5% in the monthly figure bears watching. Increases in the price of eggs (8.2%) — driven by avian influenza — and the price of beef (3.1%) — driven by high input costs — both point to challenges the food and agriculture supply chain are working to address.

“But November’s numbers continue to demonstrate that, for consumers looking for affordability, eating at home is still the best bet. 

“As we approach the December holidays, consumers tell us they continue to feel confident in managing their grocery budgets. In fact, 85% of grocery shoppers report that they have at least some control over their grocery expenses.”

Of the 18 items followed by Milling & Baking News, 13 posted month-over-month decreases and 5 finished higher.

The November index for Cereals and Bakery Products before seasonal adjustment was 354.4% of the 1982-84 average, down 0.5% from a year ago. For all food at home, the November index was 308, up 1.6% from November 2023.

The CPI for cereals and cereal products in November was 285, down 0.9% from October and down 0.6% from November 2023. The index for products within this category included: flour and prepared mixes, 312.5, down 3.1% from October and down 1.6% from the previous year; breakfast cereal, 278.1, up narrowly from the previous month but down 0.9% from a year ago; and rice, pasta and corn meal, 290.2, down 0.9% from October but up 0.2% from November 2023.

The price index for bakery products in November was 394.8, down 1.4% from October and down 0.5% from November 2023.

The November index for bread was 238.7, down 1.3% from October and down 0.8% from November 2023. Under this heading, the CPI for white bread was 431.8, down 0.8% from October and down 0.8% from November 2023. For bread other than white, the index was 463.9, down 2.3% from October and down 1.2% from a year ago.

The price index for fresh biscuits, rolls and muffins in November was 236.3, down 1.4% from October and down 1.6% from November 2023. The November index for cakes, cupcakes and cookies was 375.9, up 0.5% from October and up 1.5% from November 2023. Under this segment, other price indexes included fresh cakes and cupcakes, 395.8, up 0.8% from October and up 0.5% from November 2023; and cookies, 355.6, up 0.1% from the previous month and up 2.5% from the previous year.