WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Jan. 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report raised from December its forecast of the 2024-25 US sugar ending stocks-to-use ratio to 15.4% from 13.5% in December on higher beginning stocks, domestic beet sugar production and high-tier imports, with no changes in forecast deliveries.     

The biggest adjustment was in 2024-25 domestic beet sugar production, forecast at a record-high 5,338,000 tons, up 178,030 tons, or 3.4%, from December and up 166,000 tons, or 3.2%, from 2023-24. Cane production was unchanged from December at 4,066,000 tons, which was down 67,000 tons, or 1.6%, from 2023-24. Total sugar production was forecast at a record-high 9,404,000 tons, up 1.9% from December and up 1.1% from 2023-24. The increase in beet sugar production was the result of higher sugar recovery from sliced beets, forecast at 15.106%, up from 14.751% in 2023-24, the USDA said.

US sugar imports were forecast at 2,966,000 tons in 2024-25, up 40,000 tons from December but down 845,000 tons, or 22%, from 2023-24. Tariff-rate quota imports were forecast at 1,629,000 tons, down 1,000 tons from December, other program imports at 200,000 tons, unchanged, imports from Mexico at 621,000 tons, unchanged, and high-tier imports at 517,000 tons, up 40,387 tons from December but down 714,000 tons, or 58%, from a record 1,231,000 tons last year. If realized, high-tier imports will be the second highest on record.

Beginning stocks were estimated at 2,123,000 tons, up 24,054 tons from December. Total 2024-25 sugar supply was forecast at 14,494,000 tons, up 242,943 tons, or 1.7%, from December but down 465,000 tons, or 3.1%, from 2023-24.

There were no changes from December in forecast 2024-25 sugar deliveries at 12,555,000 tons, with deliveries for food at 12,350,000 tons (down 0.4% from 2023-24), exports at 100,000 tons, and other at 105,000 tons. 

Sugar ending stocks in 2024-25 were forecast at 1,939,000 tons, up 242,943 tons, or 14%, from December but down 184,000 tons, or 9%, from 2023-24.

There were no revisions from December to production or supply for 2023-24. Estimated deliveries were reduced by 24,054 tons due to a like reduction in miscellaneous, estimated at 81,000 tons. Ending stocks were estimated at 2,123,000 tons, up 24,054 tons from December, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 16.5%, up from 16.3% in December and up from 14.3% in 2022-23.