SAN ANTONIO — Perimeter bakery sales performance in December helped lift the overall bakery category to slight gains for 2024, food market research firm 210 Analytics reported.

For the 52 weeks ended Dec. 29, 2024, total bakery dollar sales (including fixed- and random-weight products) edged up 0.5% year over year to $48.5 billion, while unit volume came in flat, according to 210 Analytics, based on US multi-outlet data from Circana. Fresh bakery departments saw dollar sales rise 1.2% to $21.4 billion for 2024, with units up by the same percentage. That more than offset center-store bakery category declines of 0.1% in dollars and 0.7% in units for the year.

Perimeter bakery dollars sales dipped 0.3% to $1.9 billion and unit volume inched up 0.1% in December, while the aisle bakery saw decreases of 0.9% to $2 billion in dollars and 1.1% in units for the month.

Results for December and the full year reflect the impact of the measuring period’s date cut-off of Dec. 29, compared with Dec. 31 in 2023, meaning that some New Year’s celebration sales likely shift to the January 2025 report, noted Anne-Marie Roerink, president of San Antonio-based 210 Analytics.

More strength in fresh

“Perimeter bakery results were a little stronger,” Roerink said of the December performance. “Cakes were the biggest seller in December, while pies fell from the No. 2 position in November to fourth in December. Perimeter pie sales have struggled this year, down 6% in units.”

Six of the 13 tracked fresh bakery segments generated dollar sales growth in the four calendar weeks of December. Croissants had the biggest dollar gain, up 8.1% to $79.4 million, with donuts posting the next-largest increase at 4.5% to $135 million. Also tallying dollar sales increases for the month were bagels/bialys (up 1.8% to $36.5 million), cookies (up 1.7% to $321 million), pastries and danish (up 0.6% to $174 million), and muffins (up 0.1% to $112 million).

December dollar sales in perimeter bakery fell the most for brownies and bars (down 9.4% to $35.8 million), tortillas and wraps (down 6.7% to $28.9 million) and specialty desserts (down 4.5% to $11.1 million). Other decliners included pies (down 3.4% to $150 million), bread (down 2.7% to $148 million), cakes (down 1.9% to $509 million), and buns and rolls (down 1.2% to $106 million).

Just three fresh bakery segments turned in unit volume increases for December: croissants (up 7.8%), cookies (up 4.4%) and bread (up 3.9%). Brownies and bars (down 9.8%), specialty desserts (down 7.3%), and tortillas and wraps (down 7%) led in unit decreases, followed by pies (down 4.9%), bagels and bialys (down 2.2%), cakes (down 2%), donuts (down 1.8%), pastries and danish (down 0.7%), muffins (down 0.5%), and buns and rolls (down 0.2%).

Annual sales results were better for perimeter bakery, with eight categories seeing dollar growth and eight posting unit growth. Dollar gainers were led by croissants (up 6.6% to $963 million) and donuts (up 6.5% to $1.8 billion), followed by muffins (up 3.2% to $1.5 billion), buns and rolls (up 3.1% to $1.3 billion), brownies and bars (up 3% to $421 million), bagels and bialys (up 1.6% to $459 million), cookies (up 0.8% to $3.2 billion) and cakes (up 0.7% to $6.1 billion).

Fresh segments seeing dollar sales shrink included specialty desserts down 6.3% to $132 million, pies down 4.4% to $1.3 billion, pastries and danish down 1.1% to $1.9 billion, tortillas and wraps down 1.1% to $406 million, and bread down 0.3% to $1.7 billion.

By units, 2024 perimeter bakery sales climbed by 6.6% for bread, 4.6% for croissants, 3.3% for muffins, 2.6% for brownies and bars, 2% for buns and rolls, 1.3% for cookies, 0.9% for cakes and 0.9% for donuts but declined by 6.7% for specialty desserts, 6% for pies, 2.1% for bagels and bialys, 1.9% for pastries and danish, and 1.1% for tortillas and wraps.

“Much like in the bakery aisle, croissants have impressive results in the perimeter bakery, up 7.8% in units in December and 4.6% in the calendar year,” Roerink said in the report. “Other year-round winners are cookies, donuts, bread, muffins, buns/rolls and brownies.”

Down year for aisle bakery

In the center store, 5 of 14 tracked bakery segments had dollar sales gains for December, while 6 saw unit volume increases.

Posting dollar sales upticks for the month in aisle bakery were snack cakes (up 10.9% to $136 million), croissants (up 8% to $11.7 million), brownies and bars (up 5.1% to $37.3 million), cookies (up 3.4% to $72.6 million) and muffins (up 1.3% to $69.5 million). Dollar decliners included wraps and flatbread (down 8.8% to $18.4 million), cakes (down 6.4% to $37.4 million), pastries and danish (down 3.7% to $51.7 million), English muffins (down 2.9% to $69.1 million), bread (down 2.3% to $875 million), bagels and bialys (down 1.8% to $121 million), buns and rolls (down 1.3% to $425 million), donuts (down 1.1% to $76.6 million) and pies (down 0.5% to $20.6 million).

Unit volume in center-store bakery for December grew by 6.9% for snack cakes, 6% for croissants, 5.9% for brownies and bars, 4.9% for muffins, 4.1% for cookies and 0.1% for bagels and bialys. Both cakes (down 10%) and wraps and flatbread (down 10%) saw double-digit declines in units, followed by decreases of 2.7% in bread, 2.3% in pastries and danish, 2% in English muffins, 1.4% in buns and rolls, 1.2% in donuts and 1% in pies.

For 2024, the biggest dollar sales growth by far in aisle bakery came in croissants (up 26.5% to $144 million), with notable gains in pies (up 3.6% to $296 million), donuts (up 2.6% to $1.1 billion) and buns and rolls (up 2% to $5.9 billion) and slight increases in cookies (up 0.9% to $990 million) and muffins (up 0.8% to $1 billion). Experiencing dollar decreases were cakes (down 9.7% to $440 million), wraps and flatbread (down 7.3% to $289 million), snack cakes (down 4.2% to $1.5 billion), brownies and bars (down 2.5% to $519 million), bagels and bialys (down 2.3% to $1.6 billion), English muffins (down 2% to $900 million), pastries and danish (down 0.7% to $721 million) and bread (down 0.2% to $11.7 billion).

Only 5 of the 14 center-store bakery categories managed unit gains for the year: croissants (up 19.6%), donuts (up 2.9%), muffins (up 2.3%), buns and rolls (up 1%) and pies (up 0.8%). Sizable unit declines were seen in cakes (down 8.6%), wraps and flatbread (down 8.4%), snack cakes (down 6.6%) and brownies and bars (down 5.1%), followed by cookies (down 1.7%), bread (down 0.9%), English muffins (down 0.7%), pastries and danish (down 0.6%) and bagels and bialys (down 0.1%).

“Within aisle bakery, performances ranged from robust unit gains for snack cakes, cookies, muffins and brownies to substantial year-over-year declines for wraps/flatbread,” Roerink said. “Some of December’s patterns were different from those seen during the full calendar year. For instance, while donuts had an off month in December, unit sales increased by nearly 3% in 2024. Center-store croissants experienced the highest gains in 2024, with a unit increase of 19.6%.”

For the overall bakery category in December, the price per unit was $4.01, flat versus a year ago and up 20% from three years ago, according to 210 Analytics, based on Circana data. The price per unit rose 0.5% to $3.82 for the latest 52 weeks through December and were up 23.9% compared with three years ago.