WASHINGTON — The US Department of Agriculture in its Feb. 11 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report lowered from January its forecasts for 2024-25 US sugar production, imports and deliveries, resulting in a slight drop in ending stocks. Lower production also was forecast for Mexico.     

The biggest adjustment from January was in 2024-25 US sugar imports, forecast at 2,893,000 short tons, raw value, down 73,000 tons, based on lower tariff-rate quota imports only partially offset by higher high-tier imports. TRQ imports were forecast at 1,533,000 tons, down 95,862 tons from January “on an FAS survey of all countries accorded export access into the US sugar market” that showed the total TRQ shortfall at 189,922 tons, the USDA said. High-tier imports were forecast at 539,000 tons, up 22,414 tons from a month ago, based on Customs and Border Protection data through the first week of February. Imports from Mexico were unchanged at 621,000 tons, as were other program imports at 200,000 tons.

Sugar production in 2024-25 was forecast at 9,370,000 tons, down 34,000 tons from 2023-24 but still record high if realized. Beet sugar production was forecast at 5,353,000 tons, up 15,065 tons and record high based on “more sugar produced from desugared molasses and a small increase in sucrose recovery only marginally reduced by an increase in beet pile shrink reported by processors,” the USDA said. Cane sugar production was forecast at 4,017,000 tons, down 49,130 tons, based on a 55,131-ton decrease for Florida (based on processors’ reporting lower sucrose recovery), at 1,997,000 tons, only partially offset by a 6,001-ton increase in Louisiana, at 2,020,000 tons. Some in the trade still believe US beet sugar production should be lowered at some point as the higher sucrose recovery rate cannot be maintained for the duration of the slicing period. 

Total supply, with the addition of a 6,384-ton-increase in beginning stocks, was forecast at 14,393,000 tons, down 101,129 tons from January and down 572,000 tons from 2023-24. 

Total sugar deliveries in 2024-25 were forecast at 12,380,000 tons, down 75,000 tons from January, based on a like decrease in deliveries for food at 12,275,000 tons, based “on lower recent period deliveries than originally expected.” Exports were unchanged at 100,000 tons, as were “other” at 105,000 tons. Total use was forecast at 12,480,000 tons, down 75,000 tons from January and down 356,000 tons from 2023-24.

Sugar ending stocks in 2024-25 were forecast at 1,912,685 tons, down 26,129 tons from January and down 216,000 tons from 2023-24. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was forecast at 15.33%, down slightly from 15.4% in January.

The only revision from January for 2023-24 was a 6,000-ton increase in cane sugar production, which was carried through the report, resulting in a like increase in ending stocks, estimated at 2,129,000 tons. The ending stocks-to-use ratio was estimated at 16.6%, up from 16.5% in January.

The USDA forecast Mexico’s 2024-25 sugar production at 4,859,000 tonnes, actual weight, down 235,000 tonnes from January, “primarily on lower sucrose recovery and lower area harvested than projected last month,” the USDA said. Production still was up 155,000 tonnes from 2023-24. A decrease in production was expected because of the slow pace of cane harvest to date in Mexico. Imports were forecast at 125,000 tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes from January but down 636,000 tonnes from 2023-24.

“This sugar was contracted for in 2023-24 but only now is reaching importers in Mexico,” the USDA said.

Total supply was forecast at 6,402,000 tonnes, down 215,000 tonnes from a month ago.

Domestic sugar use in Mexico was forecast at 4,583,000 tonnes, down 47,000 tonnes from January, with exports at 856,926 tonnes, down 158,334 tonnes. Exports under license to the United States were unchanged from January at 531,409 tonnes. Total use was forecast at 5,440,000 tonnes, down 205,000 tonnes from January. Ending stocks were forecast at 962,000 tonnes, down 10,000 from January and down 456,000 tonnes from 2023-24.