KANSAS CITY — While the national focus of record-high egg prices has been at the retail and to some extent the restaurant levels, the ingredient costs of baked foods and other food items that use egg products also have soared in recent weeks.     

Sosland Publishing’s proprietary bakery ingredient indexes based on standard baked foods formulation show that the ingredient cost of products containing eggs are up between 12% and 74% from a year ago, with the shortbread cookie index at 251.2, up 12%; the cake donut index at 353.9, up 58%; and the Devil’s food cake index at 461.9, up 74%. (The indexes’ baseline of 100 points was established at the close on March 4, 2005. The indexes adjusted, based on prices published in Milling & Baking News). Egg prices were the dominant contributor to the surging costs.

Egg product prices were up 77% to 222% from a year ago as of Feb. 7, with the smallest increase for dried egg whites and the largest for dried egg yolks. Grade A large egg prices (the most common size sold at retail) were up 165% from a year ago. The shortage of eggs as the result of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been well reported, although some question whether the doubling and tripling of egg prices can be fully justified by the number of laying hens on Dec. 1, 2024, at 311 million, down just 3% from a year earlier. HPAI outbreaks appear to be at or near their peak, with 85 cases in commercial flocks (all types of poultry) in January, compared with 35 in November, 70 in December and 29 through the first 10 days of February, according to US Department of Agriculture data. Most recent outbreaks have been in commercial turkey operations, with detections moving eastward and out of the prime Midwest egg-producing region. Many expect outbreaks to decline as the winter progresses but have their fingers crossed as the spring wild bird migration to the north begins in a couple months. Wild birds are the main carriers of HPAI.

Source: Sosland Publishing Co.

In contrast, the saltine cracker index as of Feb. 7 was down 2.5% from a year earlier, the bagel index was down 6%, the white pan bread index was down 9% and the pasta index was down 16%. All of the indexes that were lower include flour (semolina in the case of pasta) as a main ingredient, and flour prices mostly are down from a year ago, with bakers standard patent (white pan bread) down 10%, spring standard patent (bagel) down 5%, soft wheat flour (saltine cracker) unchanged and semolina (pasta) down 16%.  

While all the bakery ingredient indexes include some type and amount of flour, the amount varies, as does the volume of other ingredients in manufactured food items. Those with a higher percentage of egg products have seen by far the greatest increases in recent weeks.

When the bakery ingredient indexes are “adjusted” to reflect egg product prices when HPAI wasn’t a factor, or wasn’t as much of a factor, as was the case a year ago, the differences in the index values are stark. The cake donut index would be 211.2, down 42% from the Feb. 7, 2025, level, the Devil’s food cake index would be 292, down 37%, and the shortbread cookie index would be 203.6, down 19%. The indexes for bagel, saltine cracker, white pan bread and pasta were not affected by the change in egg product prices.

Even with some ingredient prices lower this year than last, such as sugar, wheat flour, semolina, soy flour and soybean oil, the change in index values indicate ingredient costs for certain food items are sharply higher because of egg product prices at nosebleed levels. Further, high prices for dried egg products likely will linger longer than for liquid or frozen egg products as dried values typically are the last to adjust either higher or lower after egg prices change. Also affecting egg and egg product prices will be the several weeks it takes to replenish laying flocks to pre-HPAI production levels.